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Report : India's poor grew by 34 mn in '09
9/2/2010
It's a myth that the global financial crisis left India virtually unscathed. In fact, India is the biggest victim of financial crisis-induced poverty, according to data obtained by TOI from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs' (UNDESA). Check out these figures.
The UNDESA data estimates that the number of India's poor was 33.6 million higher in 2009 than would have been the case if the growth rates of the years from 2004 to 2007 had been maintained. In 2009 alone, an estimated 13.6 million more people in India became poor or remained in poverty than would have been the case at 2008 growth rates.
In other words, while a dip from the 8.8% growth in GDP averaged from 2004-05 to 2006-07 to the 6.7% estimated for 2008-09 may be nothing like the recession faced by the West, its human consequences for India were probably worse. The 2.1% decline in India's GDP growth rate has effectively translated into a 2.8% increase in the incidence of poverty.
According to the UNDESA's World Economic Situation and Prospects 2010, 47 million more people globally became poor or remained in poverty in 2009 than would have been the case at 2008 growth rates, and 84 million more than would have poor at 2004-7 growth rates. Of these, 19 and 40 million respectively are in south Asia.
While the report did not give India-specific figures, these were given to TOI by the UNDESA in response to a request for more information on the numbers pertaining to the country. The numbers come from revised per capita income estimates for 2009. The report uses the World Bank's definition of poverty, which is people living on less than $1.25 per day in 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) dollars.
The estimates assume that there has been no change in income distribution. If inequality grew in India in 2009, the number of poor would be even higher than these projections.
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